Traders Fear "Tail Risk" in Bitcoin Market as Out-of-the-Money Options Pricing Suggests Possibility of Rare Event
Traders in the bitcoin market are pricing in "tail risk," as indicated by the relative richness of out-of-the-money call and put options. This suggests a higher possibility of an investment moving more than three standard deviations from the mean. The butterfly index, which gauges the relative richness of these options, has risen to yearly highs, indicating traders' fear of tail risk or sensitivity to uncertainty.
CME “Fed Watch”: The Probability of the Fed Keeping Interest Rates Unchanged in September Is 84.5%
August 23, the "Fed Watch" data from CME shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% in September is 84.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 5.50%-5.75% range is 15.5%.
Fed minutes: Inflation risks may call for further policy tightening
Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - Inflation risks may require further policy tightening. Two Fed officials lean towards keeping rates stable in July. Most Fed officials believe there is a "significant" upward risk to inflation.
Goldman Sachs: The Fed Is Expected To Start Cutting Interest Rates by the End of June 2024, With Quarterly Cuts Expected To Be 25 Basis Points
According to Goldman Sachs economists, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates before the end of June 2024 and gradually lower rates on a quarterly basis from then on.
Goldman Sachs economists, including Jan Hatzius and David Mericle, wrote in a report last Sunday, "We have lowered our expectations because once inflation approaches its target, we want to normalize fund rates from restrictive levels.
Goldman Sachs: The Fed Will Cut Interest Rates by 25BP per Quarter in Q2 Next Year
Goldman Sachs stated in a research report released in the early hours of the 14th that our baseline prediction is that the Federal Reserve's FOMC will begin lowering the federal funds rate in the second quarter of 2024. We expect a quarterly rate cut of 25 basis points. If the FOMC is more confident that inflation will not return, it can cut interest rates at a faster pace.
Former SEC Internet Enforcement Director: The U.S. Encryption Field Is Suffering "Unprecedented Financial Regulatory Impact"
According to John Reed Stark, former director of SEC Internet law enforcement, the US cryptocurrency field is facing an "unprecedented financial regulatory impact" on X.
Stark first emphasized the "new activity supervision plan" launched by the Federal Reserve (Fed) on August 8. Stark said that part of the plan is aimed at regulating US banks' participation in dollar-backed tokens, such as the recently launched PYUSD or other stablecoins. This will be a "challenging" task for most traditional banks, as the Fed will judge their ability to manage the many risks associated with these tokens.
Crypto Crime Sees a Sharp Decline in First Half of 2023, Bitcoin Price Shoots Up
Bitcoin has surged 79% this year, marking a positive turn for the cryptocurrency industry. Crime rates in the crypto space have also dropped significantly, with a 65% decrease in flows to known illicit entities and a 42% decrease in inflows to risky entities. However, ransomware attacks remain a threat, with losses of at least $449.1 million through June this year.
US Labor Market Cools Down in July, Nonfarm Payrolls Fall Short of Expectations
The July jobs report suggests that the labor market is cooling down, in line with the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation. Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 200,000 but fell short at 187,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5%, which is within the range of 3.4% to 3.7% since March 2022. The S&P 500 had a minimal reaction to the report, dropping around 0.15%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin rose above $29,200 on Coinbase after a volatile 24 hours. Andjela Radmilac, an analyst at CryptoSlate, has a classical education and a passion for news, and has been covering the crypto industry since 2018.
Bitcoin and Altcoins Drop on News of DeFi Exchange Hack
Bitcoin and Ether prices experienced a drop on Monday morning in Asia, but managed to stay above the support levels of US$29,000 and US$1,800 respectively. The decline was linked to news of a hack at DeFi exchange Curve Finance, which resulted in an estimated loss of US$41 million worth of cryptocurrencies.
Federal Reserve's Rate Hike Has Little Impact on Cryptocurrency Market, Bitcoin Bulls Charge Forward
The Federal Reserve's decision to raise the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to 5.50% had little impact on the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin. The central bank's cautious approach was seen as a sign that it is still concerned about the potential impact of its monetary policy on the broader economy. Despite the Fed's decision to raise rates, they may raise them again in September, depending on the data. Bitcoin's technical indicators suggest that it may be poised for a rebound shortly, which could be welcome news for investors and traders alike.
