Traders in the bitcoin market are pricing in "tail risk," as indicated by the relative richness of out-of-the-money call and put options. This suggests a higher possibility of an investment moving more than three standard deviations from the mean. The butterfly index, which gauges the relative richness of these options, has risen to yearly highs, indicating traders' fear of tail risk or sensitivity to uncertainty.

This pricing for tail risk is consistent with lingering macroeconomic uncertainty, including the Federal Reserve's continued bias for tightening and the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.