After the release of CPI data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December rose to 94.5%
On November 15th, based on CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 94.5%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 5.5%.
CME Fed Watch: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 90.9%
According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 90.9%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 9.1%.
The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged until January next year is 77.7%, the probability of cumulative interest rate hikes of 25 basis points is 21%, and the probability of cumulative interest rate hikes of 50 basis points is 1.3%.
Goldman Sachs: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates starting in Q4 next year
Goldman Sachs has stated that the difficult phase of the United States' fight against inflation seems to be over. Once the core PCE falls below 2.5%, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2026, with a reduction of 25 basis points per quarter. Two key risks still exist: soaring oil prices and the possibility of something breaking in the new interest rate environment. The risks are real but controllable, partly because the Federal Reserve can freely cut interest rates next year and has enough room to do so.
Fed's Daley: Not sure if rate hikes are over yet
Fed's Daly said that it is uncertain whether the Fed has completed the interest rate hike process; the risk of excessive tightening or insufficient tightening is roughly balanced; data will need to be monitored to determine whether inflation is returning to the path of 2%; it is not yet clear whether interest rates are sufficiently restrictive; it is premature to declare victory over inflation now, but the policy status is good; there should be no surprise about the volatility in the bond market.
Fed Harker: The Fed will keep interest rates at a higher level for a longer period of time, with no sign of lowering interest rates yet
On November 9th, the Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the next Fed rate decision "may be based on data." The Fed will maintain a higher level of interest rates for a longer period of time, with no signs of a rate cut.
WSJ: Fed's Kashkari doesn't think rate hike cycle is over
The Wall Street Journal reported that Fed's Kashkari does not believe the interest rate hike cycle has ended.
CoinShares Research Director: Stablecoin trading volume surged last year, mainly due to the Federal Reserve’s sharp interest rate hikes
According to James Butterfill, head of research at crypto asset management company CoinShares, investors' appetite for stablecoins is closely related to the US dollar because their face value is always calculated in US dollars. The main reason for the surge in stablecoin trading volume last year was the significant increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which stimulated a sharp rise in the US dollar. In fact, not all stablecoins have performed poorly, and USDT, which is linked to the US dollar, is a rare exception. The market value of USDT reached a historical high of $83.8 billion in August last year.
However, due to the decoupling of Terra USD and Binance's BUSD last year, the world's largest and second-largest stablecoins, USDT and USDC, fell below the $1 exchange rate. At the same time, several small and medium-sized banks in the United States, including SVB, collapsed at the beginning of this year, and market risk aversion increased, causing investors to stay away from virtual currency assets.
Dante Disparte, global strategy chief and chief strategist of Circle, said that the global risk of de-dollarization is due to the impact of the crisis of small and medium-sized banks in the United States, and it is estimated that the stablecoin adjustment period will continue.
Fed Bostic: The Fed may consider cutting interest rates in the future
Federal Reserve's Bullard stated that he predicts the US will not experience an economic recession; he may support maintaining the current interest rate level for about 8-10 months; credit is clearly tightening, and more tightening effects will appear; it is expected that inflation will cool down next year, and the Federal Reserve may consider cutting interest rates in the future.
Swap contracts predict the Fed will cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points in 2024
According to the exchange contract display, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points in 2024. <br>
The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in December is 80.2%
Probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the range of 5.25%-5.50% in December is 80.2%, while the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 19.8%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged until January next year is 71.9%, with a probability of cumulative interest rate hikes of 25 basis points at 26.0% and a probability of cumulative interest rate hikes of 50 basis points at 2.0%.
