Crypto asset manager Grayscale has predicted that the next President of the United States will be supportive of the development and implementation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). In a blog post, Grayscale noted that leading candidates from both political parties, including Joe Biden and Donald Trump, have expressed their favorable stance towards CBDCs. However, while they seem to agree on CBDCs, both candidates have shown less enthusiasm for Bitcoin.

Grayscale predicts that the next US president will support the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), transcending party lines. Both frontrunners, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, have shown willingness to explore CBDCs, though their views on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin differ.

According to a report by Grayscale, the crypto market in July reflected the broader economic sentiment surrounding the possibility of a soft landing for the US economy. The report states that recent data suggests low inflation and consistent growth, reducing the risk of a recession. However, the possibility of a soft landing is not guaranteed, and the crypto recovery may pause if the economy stumbles or the Federal Reserve raises real rates further. The report also notes that while Bitcoin remained relatively stable, other risky assets such as US regional bank equities and crude oil performed well, while Ethereum showed more volatility. The US District Court ruling on SEC v. Ripple Labs was a significant event in July, impacting several other tokens and reflecting broader market dynamics.

The US SEC is reportedly open to considering Ethereum Futures ETFs after multiple applications were filed by TradFi and crypto giants, including Grayscale and VanEck. The regulator had previously directed funds to withdraw their ETH Futures ETF applications. However, the SEC's consideration of the ETFs does not guarantee their approval. If approved, the ETFs could go live in 75 days from the date of filing, with the first launch expected on October 12.

According to a report by digital asset manager Grayscale, macro factors pose the biggest risk to crypto valuations and the future of the market depends on the US economy achieving a "soft landing" to avoid a recession. Grayscale's research director, Zach Pandl, warned that if the economy falters or the Federal Reserve raises rates further, the crypto recovery may pause in the near-term. However, if economic data continues to support the soft landing thesis, major token valuations could catch up with the rally in other risky assets. Bitcoin may appreciate if the Fed decides to tolerate a long period of above-target inflation, given its role as an alternative non-sovereign money system and inflation hedge.

On July 28, the D.C. Circuit overturned a ruling by the SEC that SPIKES Index securities should be treated as 'futures' instead of 'securities futures', calling the SEC order "arbitrary and capricious." The SEC had exempted SPIKES Index from the definition of security futures in 2020 to promote competition among volatility indexes, but the court found the exemption to be "arbitrary and capricious" and lacking in explanation. As a result of the decision, SPIKES Index futures are now considered “securities futures” and market participants have three months to wind down their transactions. This ruling may also have implications for legal battles between crypto firms and the SEC, as two of the panel's judges are examining Grayscale's challenge to an SEC decision denying a request to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Alameda Research, a bankrupt crypto investment firm, is seeking the support of GBTC shareholders who hold at least 10% of Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust shares in its lawsuit against Grayscale and its parent company, DCG. Alameda plans to file an amended complaint against Grayscale, and is in talks with several unnamed GBTC shareholders who are willing to join as co-plaintiffs. Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey has urged GBTC shareholders to join the lawsuit, stating that it will affect all shareholders and determine if they are investors or hostages. Grayscale is currently engaged in a legal dispute with the SEC over its plan to convert its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.

Grayscale has urged the SEC to approve any qualifying Bitcoin spot ETF applications simultaneously and avoid favoritism. However, Grayscale has also argued that Coinbase should not be considered a suitable surveillance partner for launching a Bitcoin spot ETF. The SEC's decision on these matters could create more clarity and stability in the cryptocurrency market.

Grayscale has urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve all spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications simultaneously, arguing that the regulator should not pick winners and losers. The company's chief legal officer, Craig Salm, said the SEC should act in a fair and orderly manner. Grayscale has taken the SEC to court over repeated denials to convert its flagship Bitcoin fund into a spot Bitcoin ETF. The SEC has rejected applications for a spot Bitcoin ETF for over a decade, citing concerns over potential fraud and manipulation.

Grayscale's GBTC volume has surged, indicating bullish sentiment in fiat markets. The number of addresses holding more than 1 Bitcoin has also increased, with whales showing interest in Bitcoin.