CryptoQuant founder: GBTC will continue its current reduction rate or will return to zero in mid-March
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, wrote on X platform that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) holdings have decreased by 15% in the past seven days. If this trend continues at this rate, it is expected that GBTC will reach zero in mid-March this year. Ki Young Ju also questioned Grayscale's plan to reduce GBTC holdings.
Embers: Grayscale GBTC is expected to have an outflow of 500 million US dollars worth of BTC tonight, and the remaining nine ETFs are expected to have an inflow of 400 million US dollars worth of BTC.
On-chain analyst Yu Jin stated that based on the inflow/outflow of funds for BTC spot ETFs on January 23rd, it is expected that there will be a transfer of approximately 23,750 BTC (930 million US dollars) to each ETF custodial address when the US stock market opens at 22:30 tonight: GreyScale GBTC custodial address will transfer approximately 13,157 BTC (capital outflow of 515 million US dollars on January 23rd); The remaining nine ETF custodial addresses will receive approximately 10,593 BTC (capital inflow of 400 million US dollars on January 23rd). Currently, the total BTC holdings of the ten BTC spot ETFs are approximately 647,426 BTC.
FTX sells approximately $1 billion in GBTC since GBTC converted to ETF
According to private data reviewed by CoinDesk and two insiders, since the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC) converted to an ETF earlier this month, FTX's bankruptcy institution has sold 22 million shares of GBTC worth about $1 billion, with a large portion being outflows of funds. As of October 25, 2023, FTX held 22.3 million shares of GBTC, and on January 11, the first day of GBTC trading on NYSEArca, the value of GBTC held by FTX rose to around $900 million, according to documents submitted on November 3, 2023.
FTX's bankruptcy estate sells $1 billion worth of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares
Investors have sold over $2 billion worth of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since it became an exchange-traded fund earlier this month. FTX's bankruptcy estate was responsible for a large portion of the exodus, selling 22 million shares worth close to $1 billion. While new bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity have seen inflows, GBTC has seen billions of dollars worth of bitcoin pulled out. FTX's selling pressure may ease now that it has finished liquidating its holdings, which were valued at $597 million in October 2023.
Grayscale still has selling pressure of 281,045 BTC, about 12 billion US dollars
According to a recent analysis by Colorways Ventures and The Consensus founder Kiarash Hossainpour, there may be a shockwave in the Bitcoin market, with some significant Bitcoin holdings potentially causing huge selling pressure on the market in the first half of 2024. First, Hossainpour warns people to pay attention to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund (GBTC), whose holdings have decreased from 621,000 BTC to just under 580,000 BTC since the launch of the spot ETF. Compared to other providers such as Bitwise (0.2%) and BlackRock (0.25%), the trust's high annual fee of up to 1.5% and Grayscale's history currently result in massive selling, which may be the reason for the current downward trend. Furthermore, there is no sign of an end yet. According to experts, there is still selling pressure of 281,045 BTC, or about $12 billion. In addition, the bankruptcy proceedings of Celsius and FTX exacerbate potential selling. It is expected that the liquidation and distribution will take place in the first half of 2024, and the approximately 38,000 BTC (worth $1.6 billion) provided by Celsius and the approximately 20,500 BTC (worth $850 million) provided by FTX may be converted into dollars.
Grayscale GBTC negative premium further narrowed to 0.296%
On January 20th, ETF analyst Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg released data on social media showing that today's GBTC negative premium has further narrowed to within 0.3%, recording 0.296%.
JP Morgan: There may be another $1.5 billion in profit outflows through GBTC
JPMorgan stated on Thursday that up to $3 billion has been invested in GBTC on the secondary market to take advantage of the discount to the trust fund's relative net asset value by 2023. If this estimate is correct and taking into account the $1.5 billion that has already exited, another $1.5 billion may be profitably withdrawn from the field through GBTC, which could put further pressure on Bitcoin prices in the coming weeks. The report also states that this outflow of funds has put pressure on GBTC to reduce fees and adds that "compared to other spot Bitcoin ETFs with further fund outflow risks, GBTC's 1.5% fee still appears to be high. If GBTC loses its liquidity advantage, it may withdraw more capital, potentially exiting an additional $5 billion to $10 billion."
GBTC outflows of $458 million on Day 4, total outflows at $1.6 billion
According to BitMEX Research, GBTC flow data for the fourth day has been released, showing that 458 million USD flowed out of GBTC on the fourth day, with a total outflow of 1.6 billion USD.
GBTC has officially completed its transformation into an ETF
Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, stated on X platform that GBTC has officially completed its transition to an ETF.
Grayscale GBTC has submitted a written prospectus document to the US SEC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has submitted a written prospectus to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the US Securities Act 163/433.
