As we get closer to the 2024 halving, Bitcoin is not just surviving; it's evolving. Following the landmark approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and changing flows, the very structure of Bitcoin's market is evolving. In this piece, we'll dive into the halving—what it is, why it matters, and its historical impact on Bitcoin's performance. Then, we'll examine Bitcoin’s current landscape, and why it looks so much different than just a year ago.

Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, recently sold 1000 call options with a nominal value of $43 million and a strike price of $50,000 that will expire at the end of April on the X platform. The premium was $1.65 million, and the transaction was slightly below the purchase price, indicating that this may be a covered call option strategy. Although the current implied volatility (IV) is low, the fact that the major player chose to sell call options with a strike price of $50,000, which is more than 15% higher than the current level, indicates that the major player has a pessimistic attitude towards the market before the Bitcoin halving. This transaction shows that the game intensity of the Bitcoin halving event has significantly increased in recent days.

Cryptocurrency trading strategy tool DecenTrader predicted the price behavior of BTC's "halving", believing that before the market reacts to the upcoming block subsidy halving, the price of Bitcoin may experience about a month of horizontal fluctuations. DecenTrader CEO Filbfilb said that he expects the purchase volume to surge around two months before the halving date on April 18, followed by another "sell-the-news event" similar to last month's launch of the spot Bitcoin trading fund (ETF).

A recent report by Cantor Fitzgerald suggests that the upcoming Bitcoin halving event will present significant challenges for the eleven largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners. However, Bitdeer, a Singapore-based mining company, is expected to maintain its profitability despite the challenges. Cantor analysts predict that Bitdeer will emerge as a potential winner due to its high cost-efficiency. Bitdeer's cost per coin is estimated to be the lowest compared to other miners at $17,744, assuming an average Bitcoin price of $40,000 and a stable hashrate. This finding highlights Bitdeer's competitive edge and potential to lead the industry post-halving.

BTC.com, the current block height is less than 100 days away from the Bitcoin halving time. Since a halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, the next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur when the block height reaches 840,000 in April 2024, at which time the block reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

According to blockchain explorer, there are still 15,000 blocks left until Bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur on April 23, 2024.

Michael Saylor, the co-founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy, predicts that Bitcoin's price will rise significantly next year due to two catalysts. The first catalyst is the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), which will attract mainstream investors and institutions to invest in the cryptocurrency. The second catalyst is Bitcoin's halving event in April 2024, which will cut the rewards of BTC miners in half and create a supply shock. Saylor believes that these two events will trigger a major bull run in Bitcoin.