Some large fund management companies in Europe believe that traders betting on the European Central Bank not raising interest rates again are wrong. LGIM, Vanguard, and Robeco all stated that the eurozone, as a net energy importer, is particularly vulnerable to rising energy prices if the Middle East crisis escalates. This makes eurozone short-term government bonds especially fragile. Ales Koutny, the head of international rates at Vanguard, agrees that the market is betting on the European Central Bank pausing its rate hike next week, but he also believes that traders are too confident in their bet that the bank will not tighten policy further in the coming months. The market underestimates the possibility of the European Central Bank raising interest rates again, while also underestimating the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates.
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