From deribit insights by Imran Lakha

BTC Fails To Hold Above $100k

Bitcoin briefly cleared the 100k mark after overcoming December’s sell pressure, though it has since pulled back to 95k. No major crypto-specific drivers are expected until after Trump’s January 20 inauguration, which could spark mild optimism if crypto plans are mentioned. Regulatory advances in 2024 set the stage for potentially game-changing developments in 2025, likely cementing digital assets in mainstream finance. Key macro data and potential liquidity injections in January may create near-term trading opportunities.

Carry Stays Positive

Volatility in both assets dropped significantly before yesterday’s sharp move. Front-end implied vols remain subdued despite the decline, leaving carry firmly positive. While markets drifted steadily higher earlier, this latest drop raises questions about whether the next upswing has truly begun.

Skew Structure Remains In Contango

Longer-dated options still show stronger demand for upside, keeping skew in contango. In Bitcoin, March to December 2025 calls gave up some premium. Ethereum’s skew eased slightly as well but continues to command a higher premium compared to Bitcoin.

ETH/BTC Unable To Break Downtrend

ETH/BTC remains locked in its downtrend. Meanwhile, Ethereum’s implied volatility still outpaces Bitcoin by about 10–12 vols, despite similar realized volatility over the holidays. From mid-2025 onward, options skew favours ETH calls, although front-end skew has narrowed on the recent dip.

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