If you zoom out while looking at the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum, the truth is that prices have essentially been moving sideways since last summer. It is so easy to get caught up in the latest FUD or FOMO news that is released and caused panic in the markets. However, those of us who are in this market for the long term recognize that these times of sideways price movements are often some of the best opportunities to grow your portfolio.
While I never stop accumulating and actually devote more cash into buying during these times. The truth is that I cherish quiet times like these in the market. Prices have moved up from their bottoms, but no one is sure if the recovery will continue, if we’ll move back down, or if we are destined for longer sideways action. With the market being so quiet, it is a perfect time to take a step back, reflect and go through everything that is happening in the market. It’s also a great time to research and regain your conviction if it has been shaken during the bear market.
And so today, let’s talk about the state of the crypto market as of February 2023, and the most important things happening.
FED Becoming Dovish
Outside of the summer of insolvencies that the crypto market saw last year. The factor that most affected downward price movements were how aggressive the US FED was at increasing interest rates.
It appears that we are nearing the limit of how high the FED can actually raise rates without completely breaking the economy. ? Maybe they will increase rates 1 or 2 additional times, and be finished after that. If they come out and announce that they’re finished raising rates. That is the announcement that will send all financial markets into a giant recovery, especially risk assets such as crypto.
There have even been discussions that they may be forced to lower rates toward the end of this year if the economy enters a recession. This move would cause asset prices to go up even more. This will be an ongoing situation that we all need to be paying attention to.
NFTs Coming to Bitcoin via Ordinals
Do you remember how the hype around NFTs helped send the price of Ethereum to nearly $5k? Do you also remember how the price of Bitcoin went up to $69k with the only demand for it being used as a potential store of value?
NFTs have come to Bitcoin via Ordinals, which could drastically increase the demand causing the price to rise. While admittedly this is brand new on Bitcoin, the infrastructure or ecosystem isn’t set up on any level comparable to the NFT market on Ethereum. However, all of those things will eventually come. While I’m still not a huge fan of NFTs, and probably wouldn’t ever buy any of them even if they are on Bitcoin. The reason I like this movement is that innovation and development are finally returning to Bitcoin. It feels like more of a return to its roots, which is a great thing. I think this could be a moment in Bitcoin’s history that we look back on and say that is when Bitcoin finally transformed into something even greater.
Ethereum’s Shanghai Update
Last year the most important thing that happened in crypto was the Ethereum merge. This year Ethereum once again arguably has the most important event with the Shanghai update. While this protocol update won’t make Ethereum any faster or help it scale. However, it will finally allow users who have locked up their ETH in staking to finally be able to withdraw.
There have been debates on whether this will be a bullish or bearish factor for the price of ETH. With many speculating that it will cause a large number of users who are withdrawing to sell their coins. The fact is that the withdrawal release schedule will be staggered, which means that if there are any downward price effects. It won’t be disastrous.
I have the opinion that this will actually be a very bullish thing for Ethereum. Some people have had their ETH locked in the staking protocol for more than 2 years now. With the ability to withdraw, it could add a lot of confidence into ETH staking and could convince even more people to decide to stake their Ethereum.
SEC Banning Crypto Staking as a Service
Finally, the SEC potentially wanting to ban staking as a service is the biggest topic in crypto right now. The SEC sued Kraken for it offering staking services, and Kraken has decided to end all of those services as a result.
One thing is certain, this is only the beginning of the attack by the SEC against staking. Small exchanges won’t be able to fight it and will likely end their similar offerings as well. Coinbase has hinted that it might be willing to fight against the SEC, but it is too soon to tell.
Last year the endless amounts of insolvencies in the market reminded crypto users of the importance of taking self-custody. And now, we are being reminded of that once again. The SEC can ban staking on centralized exchanges and services. However, they cannot stop you from running your own validator or using decentralized services. While this news just came out yesterday, it is likely this could continue to be one of the biggest stories of 2023.
In my opinion, those are the four most important things that are happening in the crypto market at the moment. Three of them are bullish, and one of them is bearish. Overall, I remain optimistic about this year, and the future of crypto in general. However, the SEC attacking staking could have large ripple effects in the crypto market.
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