Cointime

Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin

From bitcoinmagazine by Nikolaus Hoffman

Earlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in this upcoming U.S. presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe that it may not be as biased as he may think.

First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting on these odds to make money, not swear loyalty to their preferred politician. Traders are looking to make a profit and are trying to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, like positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that show Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive upswing in markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.

Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market predictions platform, Kalshi.

On Kalshi, a U.S. betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also in a massive lead. Trump is currently up by 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I’m seeing many people say they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of this bet as they believe there may be election fraud from the Democrats which would see Harris ‘win’.

“Y'all betting on Trump haven't priced in the probability of delivery vans pulling into the polling stations at 3am with 10's of thousands of ballots, 99% of which going to Kamala they suddenly ‘found,’” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”

It will be fascinating to watch how these prediction markets play out as we inch closer to the election, which is now only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins will likely get narrower. It appears to me that Trump has got this one in the bag, but it ain’t over until it’s over. Last election most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, just for the Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3am to win him the election. If there is any election fraud and interference in this upcoming election, these prediction markets may be in for a very volatile time.

A Trump win would be massive for Bitcoin on a regulatory level and price wise, due to his proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of Bitcoin in this country would be uncertain, as she has not laid out any real details on policy she would implement while as president and has a four year track record of attacking the industry while in office as vice president.

Bitcoin Magazine is teaming up with Stand With Crypto to provide real time election coverage on November 5th. So if you’re a Bitcoiner tired of watching mainstream news and want to witness this election from the perspective of a Bitcoiner, make sure to tune into the stream. More details on the livestream and where to watch here.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • U.S. Congressman Mike Flood: Looking forward to working with the next SEC Chairman to revoke the anti-crypto banking policy SAB 121

     US House of Representatives will investigate Representative Mike Flood's recent statement: "Despite widespread opposition, SAB 121 is still operating as a regulation, even though it has never gone through the normal Administrative Procedure Act process." Flood said, "I look forward to working with the next SEC chairman to revoke SAB 121. Whether Chairman Gary Gensler resigns on his own or President Trump fulfills his promise to dismiss Gensler, the new government has an excellent opportunity to usher in a new era after Gensler's departure." He added, "It's not surprising that Gensler opposed the digital asset regulatory framework passed by the House on a bipartisan basis earlier this year. 71 Democrats and House Republicans passed this common-sense framework together. Although the Democratic-led Senate rejected it, it represented a breakthrough moment for cryptocurrency and may provide information for the work of the unified Republican government when the next Congress begins in January next year."

  • Indian billionaire Adani summoned by US SEC to explain position on bribery case

    Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and his nephew, Sahil Adani, have been subpoenaed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to explain allegations of paying over $250 million in bribes to win solar power contracts. According to the Press Trust of India (PTI), the subpoena has been delivered to the Adani family's residence in Ahmedabad, a city in western India, and they have been given 21 days to respond. The notice, issued on November 21 by the Eastern District Court of New York, states that if the Adani family fails to respond on time, a default judgment will be made against them.

  • U.S. Congressman: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce may become the new acting chairman of the SEC

    US Congressman French Hill revealed at the North American Blockchain Summit (NABS) that Republican SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce is "likely" to become the new acting chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). He noted that current chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, 2025, and the Republican Party will take over the SEC, with Peirce expected to succeed him.

  • Tether spokesperson: The relationship with Cantor is purely business, and the claim that Lutnick influenced regulatory actions is pure nonsense

     a spokesperson for Tether stated: "The relationship between Tether and Cantor Fitzgerald is purely a business relationship based on managing reserves. Claims that Howard Lutnick's joining the transition team in some way implies an influence on regulatory actions are baseless."

  • Bitwise CEO warns that ETHW is not suitable for all investors and has high risks and high volatility

    Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, posted on X platform that he was happy to see capital inflows into Bitwise's Ethereum exchange-traded fund ETHW, iShares, and Fidelity this Friday. He reminded that ETHW is not a registered investment company under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940 and therefore is not protected by the law. ETHW is not suitable for all investors due to its high risk and volatility.

  • Musk said he liked the "WOULD" meme, and the related tokens rose 400 times in a short period of time

    Musk posted a picture on his social media platform saying he likes the "WOULD" meme. As a result, the meme coin with the same name briefly surged. According to GMGN data, the meme coin with the same name created 123 days ago surged over 400 times in a short period of time, with a current market value of 4.5 million US dollars. Reminder to users: Meme coins have no practical use cases, prices are highly volatile, and investment should be cautious.

  • Victory Securities: Funding Rates halved and fell, Bitcoin's short-term direction is not one-sided

    Zhou Lele, the Vice Chief Operating Officer of Victory Securities, analyzed that the macro and high-level negative impact risks in the cryptocurrency market have passed. The risks are now more focused on expected realization, such as the American entrepreneur Musk and the American "Efficiency Department" (DOGE) led by Ramaswamy. After media reports, the increase in Dogecoin ($DOGE) was only 5.7%, while Dogecoin rose by 83% in the week when the US election results were announced. Last week, the net inflow of off-exchange Bitcoin ETF was US$1.67 billion, and the holdings of exchange contracts and CME contracts remained high, but the funding rates halved and fell back, indicating that the direction of Bitcoin in the short term is not one-sided, and bears are also accumulating strength.

  • ECB board member Villeroy: Falling inflation allows ECB to cut interest rates

     ECB board member Villeroy de Galhau said in an interview that the decline in inflation allows the ECB to lower interest rates. In addition, the slow pace of price increases compared to average wages is also a factor in the rate cut. Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that the ECB's interest rate policy decision is independent of the Fed. Evidence shows that the ECB began to lower interest rates in early June, while the Fed lowered interest rates three months later. With the decline in inflation, we will be able to continue to lower interest rates. Currently, the market generally expects the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the next meeting in December, but weaker data increases the possibility of a 50 basis point cut.

  • State Street warns Bitcoin craze could distract gold investors

    George Milling-Stanley, the head of gold strategy at Dominion Bank, warned that the rise of Bitcoin may mislead investors to overlook the stability of gold. He believes that Bitcoin is more like a return-driven investment, while gold provides long-term stability. He also criticized Bitcoin promoters for misleading the market by using the term "mining," and believes that gold is still a more reliable investment choice.

  • Rich Dad Poor Dad author strongly supports Michael Saylor’s BTC strategy

    Robert Kiyosaki, the author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," expressed strong support for Bitcoin and Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor's BTC strategy on X this week. Kiyosaki quoted Saylor's prediction that BTC would reach $13 million and said, "I believe he's right, he's a smart man." He also pointed out that if Saylor's prediction is correct, buying 0.01 BTC at today's price could potentially make investors millionaires in the future and advised to buy in a timely manner.

Daily Must-Read

Popular Activities

Delysium $AGI & AI Private Yacht Party

Delysium $AGI & AI Private Yacht Party

March 27 - March 27
Seoul

Popular Tags

Cointime
News
Contents
RSS
Company