Cointime

Cointime

Download App
iOS & Android

Now Live: Q3 2024 'Guide to Crypto Markets' by Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional

From Glassnode

We are excited to release the third edition of our quarterly series, the 'Guide to Crypto Markets,' produced in collaboration with Coinbase Institutional. This report provides a thorough analysis of key developments in the crypto markets each quarter, including price performance, on-chain analytics, industry events, and derivatives data.

Download your copy here.

As with the previous issues of this guide, our goal is to provide institutional traders and investors with a better understanding of the digital asset market through actionable insights based on on-chain data. This edition focuses on three main insights: the rapid increase in on-chain activity, the transformative impact of ETFs, and an analysis of the current market cycle:

Key Highlights:

  • Gauging the Market Cycle: Crypto markets are known for their distinct cycles of gains and drawdowns. Recent data suggests that despite a second-quarter pullback, we are likely in the middle of the current bull cycle that began in late 2022. Historical patterns indicate that such corrections are typical and align with past market behaviors.
  • ETFs Have Altered the Landscape: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed close to $50 billion in AUM within six months, attracting new investors and deepening market liquidity. ETFs have introduced a regulated, familiar investment vehicle that complements existing options, positively impacting the broader crypto ecosystem.
  • On-Chain Activity is Increasing Rapidly: Over the past six months, various metrics such as total value locked (TVL), active addresses, and user base size indicate a significant uptick in on-chain activity. This surge is driven by diverse use cases, including lending, staking, and trading. As existing use cases mature and new innovations emerge, on-chain adoption is expected to grow further.

Key Q3 Trends:

Here are a few trends from the past quarter that are worth highlighting from an investor perspective:

Investor Profitability Trends with MVRV

MVRV Momentum is a tool that helps analysts monitor market trends by tracking the average unrealized profit multiple held by investors (MVRV) relative to its 365-day moving average.

Interactive chart explaining MVRV Momentum of ETH

When MVRV trades above its 365-day average, it typically indicates robust uptrends and improving investor profitability, often leading to increased positions during market corrections. Conversely, when MVRV falls below the 365-day average, it often signals significant unrealized losses, increasing uncertainty and risk-off decisions.

View live chart in Glassnode Studio

In early July, the MVRV ratio found support near its 365-day moving average, suggesting the 2024 uptrend remains intact with positive investor profitability.

BTC Cycle Performance and Drawdowns

View live chart in Glassnode Studio

The current bull market, which began in late 2022, has seen Bitcoin prices increase by 400%. Following the collapse of FTX, Bitcoin experienced 18 months of steady price appreciation, reaching an ATH of $73k. Afterwards, the market entered a range-bound phase for three months, followed by a -26% drawdown.

Interactive chart explaining Bitcoin cycles

This downtrend is shallower compared to previous cycles, indicating a robust market structure and reduced volatility. The 2023-24 cycle mirrors the 2018-21 and 2015-17 cycles, providing valuable insights into cycle structure and duration.

BTC Spot ETF Balances

View live chart in Glassnode Studio

Tracking the balances of the top ten US-traded Bitcoin ETFs provides a view of the capital inflow into these products. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen unprecedented success, with over $50 billion in AUM, making them the most successful ETF launch in history.

Interactive chart comparing demand from BTC ETFs and new Bitcoin issuance from miners

Since their launch, ETF inflows have also significantly outpaced new Bitcoin issuance, creating substantial demand. This increased demand has driven up trading volumes in both spot and derivatives markets.

BTC Futures Volume and Open Interest

View live chart in Glassnode Studio

The trading volume and open interest in Bitcoin futures have risen substantially. Traditional futures and perpetual futures both show increased participation and liquidity, reflecting the growing interest in Bitcoin derivatives.

Interactive chart explaining trends in BTC futures

To explore these and other topics in depth and enhance your digital asset investment strategies, explore the full version of the Q3 2024 'Guide to Crypto Markets'.

Comments

All Comments

Recommended for you

  • Putin: Russia "supports" Harris, calls her smile "contagious"

    According to foreign media such as TASS and Russia's Sputnik News, Jinse Finance reported that on the afternoon of September 5th local time, Russian President Putin said at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum 2024 that Russia will "support" the US Democratic Party presidential candidate and vice president Harris as recommended by the US President Biden in the upcoming US presidential election. When asked how he viewed the 2024 US election, Putin said it was the choice of the American people. The new US president will be elected by the American people, and Russia will respect the choice of the American people. Putin also said that just as Biden suggested his supporters to support Harris, "we will do the same, we will support her." The report said that Putin also joked that Harris' laughter is "expressive and infectious," which shows that "she is doing everything well." He added that this may mean that she will avoid further sanctions against Russia.

  • An ETH whale repurchased 5,153 ETH with 12.23 million USDT 20 minutes ago

    A certain high-frequency trading ETH whale monitored by on-chain analyst Yu Jin bought 5,153 ETH with 12.23 million USDT 20 minutes ago.

  • CFTC: Uniswap Labs has actively cooperated with the investigation and only needs to pay a fine of US$175,000

    The CFTC has filed a lawsuit against Uniswap Labs and reached a settlement. It was found that Uniswap Labs illegally provided leveraged or margined retail commodity transactions of digital assets through a decentralized digital asset trading protocol. Uniswap Labs was required to pay a civil penalty of $175,000 and cease violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). The CFTC acknowledged that Uniswap Labs actively cooperated with law enforcement agencies in the investigation and reduced the civil penalty.

  • Federal Reserve Beige Book: Respondents generally expect economic activity to remain stable or improve

    The Federal Reserve's Beige Book pointed out that economic activity in three regions has slightly increased, while the number of regions reporting flat or declining economic activity has increased from five in the previous quarter to nine in this quarter. Overall employment levels remain stable, although some reports indicate that companies are only filling necessary positions, reducing working hours and shifts, or reducing overall employment levels through natural attrition. However, reports of layoffs are still rare. Generally speaking, wage growth is moderate, and the growth rate of labor input costs and sales prices ranges from slight to moderate. Consumer spending has declined in most regions, while in the previous reporting period, consumer spending remained stable overall.

  • Puffpaw Completes $6 Million Seed Round with Lemniscap Ventures as Participant

    Puffpaw has announced the completion of a $6 million seed round of financing, with participation from Lemniscap Ventures. The Puffpaw project plans to launch a blockchain-enabled electronic cigarette aimed at helping users reduce nicotine intake through token incentives. The project encourages users to quit smoking by recording their smoking habits and rewarding them with tokens. Puffpaw's token economics aims to cover 30% of the cost of users' first month of using their product and provide social rewards. The project also considers possible system abuse, but the issue of users potentially reporting smoking habits dishonestly is not yet clear.

  • Affected by Ethervista and others, Ethereum Gas temporarily rose to 33gwei

    According to Etherscan, due to the influence of contracts such as Ethervista, Ethereum Gas has temporarily risen to 33gwei, with the top three being EthervistaRouter, UniswapRouter, and BananaGun.

  • The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 55%.

    The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 55.0%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 45.0%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by November is 32.1%, by 75 basis points is 49.2%, and by 100 basis points is 18.8%.

  • Nvidia: No subpoena received from the US Department of Justice

    Nvidia (NVDA.O) stated that it has not received a subpoena from the US Department of Justice.

  • US SEC again postpones decision on environmentally friendly Bitcoin ETF listing application

    The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once again postponed its final decision on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Arca's application for a carbon offset Bitcoin ETF. According to a document dated September 4th, the decision has been extended to November 21st. The ETF aims to provide a Bitcoin investment exposure in an environmentally friendly way by offsetting carbon emissions, tracking an investment portfolio composed of 80% Bitcoin and 20% carbon credit futures. Tidal Investments submitted the fund registration application in December 2023, while NYSE Arca submitted the initial application in March. Concerns have been raised about the environmental impact of Bitcoin mining, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting that cryptocurrency mining accounts for 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The delay in this decision also includes the postponement of approval for the Nasdaq One-Stop Cryptocurrency Investment Portfolio ETF.

  • Japanese regulator calls for lower cryptocurrency tax rates by 2025

    On September 4th, it was announced that Japan's financial regulatory agency has released a comprehensive tax reform plan for the fiscal year 2025, which includes regulations on cryptocurrency to lower its tax rate.

Daily Must-Read

Popular Activities

Delysium $AGI & AI Private Yacht Party

Delysium $AGI & AI Private Yacht Party

March 27 - March 27
Seoul

Popular Tags

Cointime
News
Contents
RSS
Company