NFTs continue to be one of the critical drivers of the dapp industry, and the Ethereum blockchain has always had the biggest NFT collection market capitalization. The NFT market has not only shown clear signs of economic recovery, but the number of brands and use cases adopting digital collectibles continues to rise and move beyond Ethereum.

So far, in 2023, NFTs generated $870 million in trading volume, with $587 million coming from collectibles. Newer trends such as Checks and the Memes OE have put the market on notice, but blue-chips collectibles yield the highest value in the NFT landscape. 

By employing a machine-learning algorithm, DappRadar generates an accurate estimate of the individual value of each NFT. This report will utilize these NFT value estimations to assess a much more accurate analysis of the market cap for the top Ethereum NFT collections.

Key Takeaways 

1. How to value NFTs?

DappRadar’s NFT Value Estimator is a tool that provides an accurate estimate of the individual value of NFTs based on their rarity traits and attributes. The estimator uses a supervised machine-learning algorithm to analyze the metadata of NFTs and interpolate the last sales to provide an estimation based on the latest market conditions. DappRadar also deploys the value estimator on other parts of the platform, such as your own Portfolio and the NFT Explorer. 

The estimator uses interpolation, a type of machine-learning algorithm that uses a set of labeled data points to create a predictive model for a problem. It provides a continuous estimation, but relies heavily on the data points provided and cannot determine the behavior of the function outside of the given data points.

DappRadar’s NFT Value Estimator is a key tool for getting a more accurate estimation of the real market cap of a collection. To estimate the value of a NFT, the algorithm doesn’t look at past sales or floor prices to determine its value. Instead, it compares the metadata of all the assets in a collection to calculate the most likely value of an NFT, and it adjusts its calculations as new sales occur.

At present, the NFT Value Estimator calculates the value of hundreds of thousands of NFTs across dozens of collections. Users can find the pricing of individual assets through the NFT Value Estimator, NFT Explorer or the Portfolio. DappRadar continuously adds new collections and data to the estimator to create the most accurate price prediction tool on the market.

The NFT Value Estimator is based on actual sales, comparing the metadata of individual sales to determine which attributes make a particular NFT stand out in price. The more trading that takes place in a collection, the better the estimator can do its job.

There are three different price estimates provided by the NFT Value Estimator: 

2. Ethereum NFT market cap estimated at $3.7B

The market for the 81 Ethereum collections analyzed by our Value Estimator*, experienced a rough year in 2022.The market cap for these collections decreased 59.60% in USD value from $9.3 billion at the beginning of the year, and now sits at an estimated $3.7 billion. Yuga Labs’ NFT collections market cap represents 67% of the entire market value. However, it is also important to consider that ETH lost 60% of its value last year, which had a strong influence on the value of the NFTs. 

Furthermore, this retraction of the NFT market was not a reflection of NFT’s utility, but rather a result of bad actors and market manipulations. Despite this, many promising projects emerged from the bear market, showcasing the potential of unique digital assets.

While the first half of 2022 saw a boom in NFTs and hype around the unique digital assets, this growth was in stark contrast to the performance of other traditional assets such as ether, bitcoin, and SPX, which all saw a downward trend. The NFT market offered higher returns for investors, with the market cap reaching its highest value of $19.1 billion in February 2022.

However, this growth was not sustainable, and the Terra Luna collapse in May 2022 had a devastating impact on the NFT market, leading to a 88% decrease in value by June. The Terra Luna event also had a significant impact on the performance of both bitcoin and ether.

The FTX collapse in November further exacerbated the downward trend, with the market cap reaching its lowest point of $2.2 billion by the end of the month. 

Despite the challenges faced in 2022, the NFT market is showing promising signs of recovery, with the market cap closing the year at $3.7 billion, an increase of 68% from November. This increase in value is a bullish sign, particularly when coupled with the positive on-chain metrics seen in January 2023.*The 81 Ethereum NFT collections analyzed by our Value Estimator:

Bored Ape Kennel Club, CryptoPunks, Mutant Ape Yacht Club, Bored Ape Yacht Club, Meebits, Otherdeed for Otherside, God Hates NFTees, KILLABEARS, RENGA by DirtyRobot, DigiDaigaku, The Potatoz, Netvrk Land, DEGEN TOONZ COLLECTION, Pudgy Penguins, mfers, rektguy, Azuki, Rare Apepes, 10KTF, CryptoDickbutts S3, goblintownNFT, Tom Sachs Rocket Factory, Autoglyphs, Fluf World, Anthony Hopkins – The Eternal, CLONE X – X TAKASHI MURAKAMI, DourDarcels, Metakrew, Doodles V4, VeeFriends, Non-Fungible Soup, World of Women, Moonbirds Oddities, Bulls On The Block, CrypToadz by GREMPLIN, 0N1 Force, Adam Bomb Squad, 10KTF Gucci Grail, Pixelmon – Generation 1, The Wicked Craniums, Avastars, ALIENFRENS V2, Forgotten Runes, Lazy Lions, Moonbirds, Kaiju Kingz, DeadFellaz, Loot (for Adventurers), Wall St Bulls, Hashmasks, VeeFriends Series 2, CyberBrokers, Gutter Cat Gang, WebbLand, MutantCats, The Alien Boy, Cyberkongz VX, Invisible Friends, Animetas, NFT Worlds V2, Akutars, PUNKS Comic Special Edition, Cool Cats, Mekaverse, Cyber Kongz, Stoner Cats, Creature World NFT, Mindblowon V2, Murakami.Flowers Official, 3Landers, Anonymice, JUNGLE FREAKS BY TROSLEY, The Doge Pound, MetaHero Universe:, Generative Identities, Sneaky Vampire Syndicate, Sup Ducks, Vox Collectibles, Antonym: GENESIS, PXN: Ghost Divison, Karafuru V2, PUNKS Comic

3. 67% of Ethereum NFT market cap belongs to Yuga Labs NFTs

Yuga Labs has built a strong presence in the world of NFTs, creating the Yugaverse ecosystem which includes several NFT collections such as Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC), Bored Ape Kennel Club (BAKC), Mutant Ape Yacht Club (MAYC), Meebits, CryptoPunks, and Otherdeeds for Otherside.Two of the most highly valued NFT collections, CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club, hold 46.7% of the Ethereum market cap, with BAYC having an average floor price of $98,438 (68.3 ETH) and a total trading volume of $49 million, in January 2023.

Bored Ape Yacht Club owners were the first who had full ownership and commercial usage rights, making it distinguishable from other NFT collections.

However, despite entering 2022 with a market cap evaluation of $2.6 billion, the Bored Ape Yacht Club experienced a 64.92% depreciation, ending the year with a market cap of $934 million.

The Bored Ape Kennel Club was later released, featuring NFTs of dogs for Bored Ape Yacht Club owners to claim. These NFTs have an average floor price in January 2023 of $11,536 (8 in ETH) and a total trading volume of $45.9 million.This NFT collection had a depreciation of its market cap at the end of 2022 of 47.42%, reaching $101 million.

In August 2021, the Mutant Ape Yacht Club launched, featuring 20k Mutant Apes with a market cap of $1 billion at the beginning of 2022.This collection was created through a serum that mutates a Bored Ape into a Mutant Ape. Technically it meant that users needed a serum NFT in order to burn that asset and receive a Mutant Ape. At the end of 2022, its market cap depreciated by 64.80%, reaching $373 million.

Yuga Labs also acquired two of the largest NFT collections on the market CryptoPunks and Meebits for an undisclosed sum from Larva Labs.The CryptoPunks collection remains one of the most valuable NFT collections despite the decline in the overall NFT market.

With a market cap of $1.1 billion at the end of 2022 and a decline of 60.24%, the NFT collection still had on average a floor price of $95,200 and 66 in ETH, in January 2023.

On the other hand, the Meebits collection has not been as successful.With a market cap of $110 million at the end of 2022 and a decline of 96.35%, the Meebits collection has experienced a significant drop in value. 

The endgame for Yuga Labs is the Otherside metaverse, which they are still developing. It consists of 200,000 plots of land, represented by anOtherdeeds NFT. Each Otherdeed offers a unique environment and sediment and may contain resources, artifacts, or a Koda. The metaverse operates on the ApeCoin cryptocurrency, which is owned and managed by the ApeCoin DAO, with Yuga Labs being one of the major contributors.

The launch of the NFT collection was highly successful, with a trading volume of $729 million in its first month, pumping every Yuga Labs NFT collection.

This helped to increase the market cap of Otherdeeds to $2.5 billion. However, by the end of 2022, the market cap had decreased to $356 million, a decline of 86.15%.The acquisition of NFT startup WENEW back in November 2022, by Yuga Labs is a critical aspect of their plan to fuel their fashion division into the metaverse. WENEW, co-founded by renowned artist Mike “Beeple” Winkelmann, has established itself as a prominent player in the NFT space through its partnerships with major brands like Gucci, Louis Vuitton, Playboy, and the Wimbledon tennis tournament. Furthermore, WENEW’s 10KTF project, which revolves around a fictional tailor creating digital apparel for high-value profile picture projects, including Bored Apes, has gained recognition for its innovative approach to NFTs. 

4. 2021 NFT collections that thrived in 2022 despite market volatility

In 2021 and early 2022, several NFT collections launched, but not all of them were able to maintain their value despite the ups and downs of the crypto market. In this section, we will focus on three NFT collections that stood out in 2022 and managed to remain profitable even with the fall in crypto prices.

The first collection is Azuki. At the beginning of 2022, its market cap was $84 million, with an average floor price in USD of $12,235 or 4.78 ETH. However, the collection saw a massive appreciation in April 2022, when it reached its highest market cap of $1.1 billion, a 1,660% increase. This increase was due to the launch of a second collection called Beanz, which provided a cheaper entry point to the community and marked the beginning of a new era for Azuki. The owners of the original Azuki NFT collection received a mysterious airdropped NFT in their wallets, which was later revealed to be a new character of the Beanz collection.

Despite a decrease in market cap later in the year, Azuki closed 2022 with a market cap of $180 million, a 113.89% increase from the beginning of the year. The floor price at the end of the year was $14,786 and 12 ETH, and it has seen a 29.71% increase in the floor price in USD and a 10.16% increase in ETH in January 2023. Azuki also partnered with Red Bull Racing to put Azuki #8494 on the side of two of its cars in November 2022, which was a significant boost for the collection.

The second collection is Pudgy Penguins, which started the year with a market cap of $25 million. In April the market cap increased to its highest value of $112 million, a 478% increase. The collection was then sold to Luca Schnetzler, who was a long-time fan of the project and its community, for 750 ETH (approximately $2.5 million). 

Despite a decrease in market cap in June 2022 due to Terra Luna’s collapse, Pudgy Penguins closed the year with a market cap of $70 million, a 260% increase from the beginning of the year.

The last collection is Degen Toonz Collection. It started the year with a market cap of $3.4 million and reached its highest value of $61.7 million in May 2022. The increase was driven by a drop for Each Toon holder to claim one of the free NFTs, as well as a burger collaboration at the official Bored and Hungry restaurant.

Despite a decrease in market cap after the hype, DEGEN TOONZ COLLECTION closed 2022 with a market cap of $11 million, a 204% appreciation from the beginning of the year.

5. NFTs that proved resilient in the aftermath of Terra Luna’s collapse

The NFT (non-fungible token) market has been heavily impacted by the Terra Luna collapse in early 2021. The market turmoil affected not only the NFT market, but the entire dapp industry as well. Despite the challenges faced by the industry, there were a few NFT collections that managed to launch and perform well in the market. These collections, including Potatoz, Renga, DigiDaigaku, and God Hates NFTees, all saw significant growth in their market cap despite the market challenges.

Potatoz, minted on 20 July 2022, and revealed on 12 November, is a collection produced by the metaverse project Memeland, owned by internet media giant  9GAG. The collection had an initial market cap of $12.3 million on its first day of mint, and saw an overall upward trend, with its highest valuation at $29.4 million in August 2022. 

The collection was also able to maintain its value, closing 2022 with a market cap of $29.06 million, only a 1.2% decrease from its highest value. The collection offers the opportunity to mint a Captainz NFT, which likely contributed to its success.

Renga, a handcrafted collection of 10,000 characters, launched in September 2022 from the hands of the famous NFT artist DirtyRobot. He is known for his stylish characters and prolific work ethic.

The collection’s unique art and community foundation, which includes a tight-knit group of collectors and support from the 10KTF community, have helped it see a 211.63% appreciation in market cap since its launch, closing 2022 with a market cap of $17.8 million

DigiDaigaku is a generative NFT collection launched by Limited Break, a Web3 gaming company. They got their inspiration from the cutesy anime style.

The collection is part of a future MMO game that utilizes a novel “free-to-own” mechanism, and saw a 209.88% appreciation in market cap since its launch, closing 2022 with a market cap of $17.2 million. DigiDaigaku has seen various additional NFT drops, which in turn made the original collection more valuable. 

God Hates NFTees is a collection of 5,022 meme NFT characters, launched in July 2022 by a mysterious character under the pseudonym SrPeters.

The collection, which operates as a community-governed DAO and has a Discord solely for trolling purposes, saw a +1,653.28% appreciation in market cap since its launch, closing 2022 with a market cap of $5.4 million.

In conclusion, despite the challenges faced by the NFT market following the Terra Luna collapse, there were a few collections that were able to launch and perform well in the market. 

6. Not every blue chip collection is a goldmine

The NFT market has seen an explosion of growth in recent years, with a wide variety of digital art and collectible items becoming highly sought after. Despite the promise of long-term value, not every NFT collection has managed to maintain its worth, and some have seen significant depreciation over the course of the year.

First on our list is Meebits, which had a market cap of $110.7 million at the end of 2022, but a staggering 96.35% decline from its value at the beginning of the year.

Larva Labs created the Meebits NFT collection, and sold the brand to Yuga Labs in 2022. Despite the hype and attention around Meebits, the collection failed to live up to expectations, and its market value suffered as a result.

Another NFT collection that experienced significant depreciation was Cool Cats, which had a market cap of $35.4 million at the end of 2022. This market cap represents a decline of 92.04%.

The Cool Cats NFT collection was created by Colin Egan, Evan Luza, Tom Williamson and Rob Mehew and initially generated a lot of excitement and buzz. However, the hype quickly faded, and its market value plummeted as a result.

Clone X- x Takashi Murakami, an NFT collection created digital fashion studio RTFKT in collaboration with the famous Japanese artist Takashi Murakami. Despite the influential names associated, the collection suffered a steep decline in value.

At the end of 2022, its market cap was $175 million, with a decline of 89.20%. Despite the artist’s reputation and high-quality artwork, the Clone X collection failed to live up to expectations, and its market value suffered as a result.

VeeFriends and Doodles V4 are two other NFT collections that suffered a significant depreciation in value.

VeeFriends had a market cap of $88.6 million at the end of 2022, with a decline of 87.31%. Doodles V4 had a market cap of $94 million at the end of 2022, with a decline of 86.64%. Both collections were highly anticipated, but failed to live up to the hype and suffered as a resul

With Moonbirds we’ve got another highly respected NFT collection that failed to maintain its value. Moonbirds had a market cap of $97.4 million at the end of 2022, with a decline of 85.12% from the beginning of the year. Meanwhile Moonbirds Oddities, a sub-collection of Moonbirds, had a market cap of $14.9 million at the end of 2022, with a decline of 80.85%.

In conclusion, the NFT market is still in its early stages, and there are many opportunities for growth and success. However, it’s important to remember that not everything that shines or is considered good, turns to gold. Just because a collection is highly anticipated, or created by a well-known artist, does not guarantee success. 

Conclusion

2022 was a challenging year for the NFT market and the dapp industry as a whole. Despite the misadventures and demands, some NFT collections still managed to thrive and appreciate their market cap. 

The success of these collections can be attributed to the perfect timing of their launch, their ability to maintain momentum, and the partnerships they formed. Additionally, their continuous engagement with their community and their focus on building and improving their offerings played a significant role in their success. This highlights the importance of careful planning and a focus on community building in the NFT space. 

Despite a decrease in market capitalization, Yuga Labs remains a significant player in the overall NFT market, contributing significantly to its overall market capitalization. The depreciated market cap of Yuga Labs does not detract from its impact on the NFT ecosystem and its importance to the industry. The NFT market is constantly evolving, and it is important to consider the long-term potential and value that projects like Yuga Labs bring to the table. Their contributions, combined with the performance of newer NFT collections, are contributing to the growth and maturation of the NFT market as a whole.

The market may face ups and downs, but for those who are able to navigate these challenges and stay committed to their goals, the potential for success is there.

Disclaimer

The NFT Value Estimator tool is currently in Beta phase. The interpolation model still needs to be trained to properly account for trade outliers and considering live time fluctuations in a collection’s floor price.