From decrypt by André Beganski

The price of Bitcoin has surged this month to record highs as investors acclimate to President-elect Donald Trump. But markets are braced for Federal Reserve minutes Tuesday that could hint at whether the U.S. central bank’s easing campaign will continue apace.

Earlier this month, the Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point, following a supersized cut of half a percentage point in September. While the reductions have bolstered so-called risk assets, investors are divided on whether a third cut is in the cards.

As of this writing, Fed futures traders saw a 43% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at its last meeting of the year ending Dec. 18, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. In other words, the outlook for a rate cut in December is relatively uncertain compared to the U.S. central banks previous two policy meetings that had brought about good news for crypto.

Lower interest rates typically bode well for risk assets like stocks and crypto, as reduced borrowing costs make them more attractive compared to payouts on investments like cash and U.S. Treasuries. However, analysts have told Decrypt that the Fed could adopt a more cautious approach, depending on how it assesses uncertainty surrounding Trump’s proposed tariffs. 

Earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank’s progress on bringing inflation down to its goal of 2% had been solid, but “it is not there yet.” While he expected inflation to continue to cool, he acknowledged that it could be a “sometimes-bumpy path.”

With the Fed’s latest policy meeting taking place after the election, Tuesday’s meeting minutes “may reveal how the Fed is thinking about potential policy actions in the wake of Trump’s victory,” the crypto market maker GSR wrote in a market update.

At the same time, market participants will get a key data point Wednesday when the U.S. Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is released. Measuring inflation in October, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to show an increase of 0.3% in prices that month, after cooling to 2.1% in the year ended September.

According to BRN analyst Valentin Fournier, a softer inflation print “could bolster Bitcoin’s momentum and improve its chances of breaking through the strong resistance at $100,000.” In a recent research note, he wrote that PCE expectations still leave “room for a positive surprise, which could strengthen the likelihood of another rate cut this year.”

Meanwhile, analysts at QCP have noticed Bitcoin and Ethereum futures traders shift towards puts over calls, favoring bearish bets based on the assets’ implied volatility. Depending on what the Fed’s meeting minutes and the PCE print have in store, that could lead to a decrease in crypto prices as the “market takes a breather,” they wrote.

“Growing concerns about downside risks may intensify, particularly with [Tuesday’s] FOMC minutes and Wednesday’s PCE data,” QCP analysts wrote. “The market had become extremely overbought since the election with excessive leverage, making a pause inevitable.”