From cointelegraph by Marcel Pechman
Bitcoin BTC$101,453 investors are bracing for the $19.8 billion options expiry scheduled for Dec. 27 at 8:00 am UTC. The recent rally above $100,000 has caught bearish investors off guard, creating an opportunity for bullish traders to capitalize and potentially fuel a new Bitcoin all-time high.
Currently, total open interest for call (buy) options stands at $12 billion, while put (sell) options trail at $7.8 billion. Deribit dominates the options market with a 72% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 12% and Binance at 9%. However, Bitcoin’s 68% price surge over the past three months has rendered most put options ineffective.
As the expiry date approaches, both bulls and bears are incentivized to influence Bitcoin’s spot price. Yet, while bullish investors are targeting levels above $110,000, their optimism alone does not guarantee that BTC will breach this threshold.
Bulls are better positioned ahead of the year-end expiry
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracting $4.5 billion in inflows during the first 12 days of December. Additionally, MicroStrategy acquired 21,550 BTC between Dec. 2 and Dec. 8 at an average price of $98,783 per Bitcoin. Similarly, Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings disclosed the purchase of 11,744 BTC on Dec. 10.
Crucially, investors are also weighing the potential approval of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve, a proposal by Senator Cynthia Lummis that aims to accumulate up to 1 million BTC over time. Other states, such as Texas, are considering similar measures. A Texas lawmaker has introduced legislation to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset for at least five years, explicitly stating that “no taxpayer funds would be spent on buying Bitcoin.”
Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin bulls are strategically better positioned for the year-end options expiry. For example, if Bitcoin’s price remains around $100,500 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 27, only $275 million worth of put (sell) options will retain value. This scenario arises because the option to sell at $100,000 becomes worthless if BTC trades above that threshold at expiry.
Related: Bitcoin could hit $160K in 2025, fueled by improving macro conditions
Bitcoin bears aim for sub-$95,000 levels to mitigate losses
Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but exclude complex strategies, such as selling put options to gain upside price exposure.
- Between $90,000 and $95,000: $4.6 billion in calls vs. $1.1 billion in puts. The net result favors the call (buy) instruments by $3.6 billion.
- Between $95,000 and $100,000: $5.6 billion calls vs. $520 million puts, favoring calls by $5.1 billion.
- Between $100,000 and $105,000: $7.12 billion calls vs. $240 million puts. favoring calls by $6.9 billion.
- Between $105,000 and $112,000: $8.13 billion calls vs. $120 million puts, favoring calls by $8 billion.
To avoid significant losses, bears need to drive prices below $95,000 ahead of the Dec. 27 expiry. On the other hand, bulls stand to maximize their gains if they can push BTC above $105,000, marking a new all-time high. Such a scenario could serve as a pivotal victory to sustain bullish momentum heading into early 2026.
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