Thomas Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, outlined in a recent CNBC interview why the VIX – a real-time volatility index from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) – will become an important indicator for equity markets and possibly Bitcoin in the coming months.
Lee expects a 20% rally for the S&P 500 this year. Why? According to the chief analyst, inflation surprised the Fed on the downside last year. This year, it will be the other way around. Inflation will fall faster than the Fed recently forecasted.
This will have a decisive impact on the VIX, which will decline in value. “The bond market volatility is below its 200 day [average]. If that happens to the VIX, we would be at 17,” Lee claims and continues to say that “since the 1950s, following a negative year, if the VIX is lower on average than the prior year, we are up an average of 22%. So I think we are set up for a 20% year.”
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