According to based on the "Federal Reserve Watch" by the CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 96.4%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until August is 76.4%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 22.8% and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 0.8%.