Below are United States attorney Jeremy Hogan's four possible outcomes from the Ripple vs SEC case.

Ruling 1: Ripple wins 

In his first prediction, Hogan noted that Ripple could win if the summary judgment reads that XRP was not sold as a security. He noted that the basis for the prediction was that Ripple has no legal obligations to the purchaser of XRP. According to Hogan: 

Ruling 2: Ripple loses

In his second prediction, Hogan cautioned that despite the public perception that Ripple might win the case, the company stands a significant chance of losing the suit. He noted that the chance of Ripple losing stands at almost 30%.

Ruling 3: A draw 

In fact, Hogan stated that the case could go to a draw, noting that there is a 19.1% chance the judge could not rule in favor of either party and ‘split the baby.’

Ruling 4: Unexpected ruling

In his final prediction, the attorney noted that there is always room for the judge to issue an unexpected verdict, noting it’s something common in litigations. 

“The fourth possibility would be something no one has really contemplated, and that does happen in litigation sometimes. In conclusion, the legal brief’s official lawsuit prediction is a 50.12% chance of Ripple winning a 29.88% chance the SEC wins,” Hogan concluded.