New York-based investment bank Jefferies Financial Group estimates FTX creditors could get as much as 40% of their money. However, that recovery rate would likely be lower once bankruptcy administrators have taken their fees.

Total liabilities at FTX appear to be between $10 billion and $13 billion against assets of $2 billion to $4 billion, Joseph Femenia, global head of distressed and special situations at the bank, said in an interview. That indicates a recovery rate of between 20% and 40%, said Femenia, who has assigned a five-person team to work on FTX full-time.

Another factor in the level of payouts to users of FTX who have assets stuck on the platform will be the fees paid to lawyers and other administrators involved in the likely years-long bankruptcy process. Femenia's team expects those costs to be between $500 million to $1 billion, or around 5 and 10 cents on the dollar. That means the potential net recovery rate for FTX creditors could range from 10% to as high as 35%, according to Jefferies estimates.

Some creditors prefer to sell their claims now, swallowing steep losses, rather than wait years to discover how much they might recover from the bankruptcy process.

Such buyers have the patience to wait for payouts to be made years down the line and are banking that they can get more back than they paid for the claim. Sellers tend to be crypto hedge funds and other institutions with external shareholders and investors who want to close positions and offset the hit against taxes.

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