Bitcoin's recovery from the $25,500 support level on June 6 does not guarantee an easy breakthrough above $27,500. Investors anticipate stricter regulatory scrutiny following recent actions against Coinbase and Binance, with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) undertaking eight cryptocurrency-related enforcement actions in the past six months.

The fear of an impending global recession also limits the upside of risk-on assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets. Bitcoin derivatives markets indicate a low probability of the BTC price breaking above $27,500 in the short-to-medium term, with a $25,500 support retest being the most probable outcome.