About 23% of Bitcoin addresses are currently losing money
According to IntoTheBlock data, the drop in Bitcoin price to $39,000 has had a significant impact on investor sentiment. Currently, about 23% of Bitcoin addresses are in a loss position, a significant increase from 13% a week ago.
BTC returns above $41,000
Market data shows that BTC has surpassed $41,000 and is currently trading at $41,005.7, with a daily decline of 1.88%. The market is volatile, so please manage your risks accordingly.
BTC falls below $40,500
According to market data, BTC has fallen below $40,500 and is now trading at $40,473.6, with a daily decline of 3.11%. The market is volatile, so please be prepared for risk control.
Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will fall below the $40,000 mark
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expressed a pessimistic view on the future price trend of Bitcoin (BTC) in social media comments. Based on a Bitcoin price chart he shared, Hayes said Bitcoin looks very heavy and believes its price will fall below $40,000. As a result, he has started to short sell and purchased put options with a strike price of $35,000 expiring on March 29. Hayes further speculated that Bitcoin's decline may continue until the US Treasury Department's quarterly refinancing announcement on January 31.
MicroStrategy vs Bitcoin: the gap is closing
Since 2020, MicroStrategy has primarily been a Bitcoin holding company. Yes, they engage in other activities, but the bulk of their business value stems from the Bitcoins they possess.
During this period, MicroStrategy's stock (MSTR) has frequently outperformed Bitcoin (BTC).
CoinShares Mining Report: The Halving and its impact on hash rate and miners cost structures
The Bitcoin mining network has experienced meteoric growth, with an increase in hashrate of 104% in 2023. This rapid expansion raises concerns regarding its sustainability, both from an environmental standpoint and in terms of the mining network’s profitability. In this document, we aim to address both of these important issues. Our final results of the average cost of production per Bitcoin, post halving for each miner are listed below, highlighting the average cost of production is US$37,856.
Incentives Are Not Enough
Imagine a billionaire kidnapped a random person and said:
Here is a camera, banana, bicycle, sundress, and porcupine; you have one day to make a funny video using them all. I’ll upload it to YouTube, and if it gets “enough” views in the first day, I’ll give you $10B. If not, I’ll kill you and your closest twenty relatives. No, I’m not going to tell you my “enough” threshold. Go.
Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin’s downward trend may indicate problems with U.S. dollar liquidity
On January 1st and 22nd, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes commented on the divergence of Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 index (SPX) on social media. He pointed out that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States, their trends are no longer synchronized. Hayes suggests that the downward trend of Bitcoin may indicate future liquidity problems. He also emphasized that the next important time point to pay attention to is the US Treasury's refinancing announcement on January 31st.
The implied volatility of Bitcoin options this week exceeded 97%, which has tripled from the low of about 30% in October last year.
On January 20th, Glassnode data showed that the implied volatility of Bitcoin options has reversed since mid-October last year. Since May 2021, as market interest weakened during the bear market, implied volatility has been declining for many years. However, this downward trend seems to have reversed recently, with implied volatility more than tripling from its low point in October, exceeding 97% this week.
Bitcoin Surpasses Silver as Second-Largest ETF Commodity After Gold
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surpassed silver ETFs in terms of assets under management (AUM) within just one week of trading, making Bitcoin the second-largest commodity ETF after gold. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) alone possesses around 619,000 bitcoins, contributing significantly to the overall AUM of Bitcoin ETFs. Silver has now been relegated to the third position in terms of AUM within the single commodity ETF asset class, with approximately $11.5 billion distributed across five ETFs. BlackRock Inc’s Bitcoin ETF has attracted over $1 billion in investor inflows, making it the first among the recently launched group of nine ETFs directly holding the cryptocurrency to surpass this milestone since their debut last week.
VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach New All-Time High This Year
Matthew Sigel, the head of digital assets research at VanEck, has expressed bullish sentiment on Bitcoin, stating that it could surpass its all-time high of $69,044 this year. Sigel believes that the upcoming contentious election could provide an opportunity for change and pro-Bitcoin policies. He also attributes Bitcoin's late 2020 gains to a weaker dollar and various macro factors, such as Nigeria reversing its bank bans and Argentina's acceptance of Bitcoin for contract settlement. Bitcoin is currently trading at $42,660.
UBS: Bitcoin fundamentals remain weak
UBS analyst stated that the approval of the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week has expanded the channels for investors to invest in Bitcoin. However, despite the increased accessibility and ease of secure storage of digital assets, the fundamentals of Bitcoin remain weak. Currently, the application of cryptocurrencies in the real world is still limited. Cryptocurrencies can significantly increase the volatility of investment portfolios. For example, even if only 10% of the portfolio is allocated to Bitcoin in a balanced investment portfolio, it would still result in about 50% volatility in this wealth strategy. Concerns about sustainability still exist due to the high energy consumption of Bitcoin.
Morgan Stanley: Bitcoin and CBDCs Threaten US Dollar's Dominance as Global Currency
Morgan Stanley's Head of Digital Assets, Andrew Peel, has warned that the increasing popularity and adoption of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as well as the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), could threaten the dominance of the US dollar as a global currency. Peel highlighted the potential paradigm shift in the way people view and interact with digital assets as a threat to the dollar's status. He also noted that CBDCs could establish a unified standard for cross-border payments, potentially diminishing the reliance on traditional intermediaries like SWIFT and dominant currencies like the dollar. Despite this, Peel acknowledged the advantages of CBDCs, including their potential to support innovation by automating transactions using smart contracts.
Bitcoin moves back above $43,000
According to OKX market data, on January 16th, Bitcoin rebounded above $43,000 and is currently priced at $43,093.15, with a 24-hour increase of 0.98%.
SINOHOPE announces partnership with Bitroo
According to official sources, on January 15th, the one-stop digital asset service platform, SINOHOPE Technology Holdings Limited (stock code: 1611.HK, SINOHOPE), announced a partnership with Bitroo. Both parties will cooperate deeply around the Bitcoin ecosystem through SINOHOPE Technology's Bitcoin Ecosystem Support Program, utilizing their respective experiences in Bitcoin mining, Bitcoin computing power services, computing power asset management, mining funds, virtual asset security custody, and one-stop Web3 product construction, to provide customers with more secure, professional, diverse Bitcoin ecosystem products and solutions.
Yesterday, the transaction fee of the entire Bitcoin network was approximately 219 BTC, an increase of approximately 73% from the previous day.
BTC.com data shows that the total network transaction fee for Bitcoin was about 219 BTC yesterday, an increase of about 73% from the previous day (126.75 BTC).
Bitcoin ETFs: The Bull Case
One train of thought says that SEC approval of spot bitcoin ETF will send the market flying. Here’s how that could play out. In a separate post, we review the bear case, where the market may not react with such optimism.
Gold on steroids? Bitcoin, gold correlation surges in 2023 — Fidelity
Bitcoin and gold have recorded strong performance in 2023 amid geopolitical uncertainties and rising interest rates.
Cointime January 13 News Express
1.JPMorgan Chase: The probability that the SEC will classify ETH as a commodity before May is less than 50%
BTC drops below $43,000
The market shows that BTC has fallen below $43,000 and is now trading at $42,999, with a daily decline of 6.07%. The market is highly volatile, so please manage your risks.
