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The “reciprocal tariff war” has entered its second phase, and global risk assets have begun to bottom out (04.07~04.13)
The main points of observation are whether the subsequent "reciprocal tariffs" will escalate conflicts, whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates "in a timely manner", and whether the US economy will fall into recession.
"Reciprocal tariffs" caused the Nasdaq to fall into a technical bear market, and BTC once again stepped back on the annual line. The market expects the probability of a rate cut in June to exceed 90%.
The short-hand group is currently still under pressure of 16% floating losses, and the collapse of this group will lead to further price falls.
EMC Labs March report: Breaking through the fog of tariff war, BTC may see a reversal in Q2
The key to BTC's return to an upward trend is that the US tariff chaos is gradually disappearing and the expectations of economic recession are not worsening.
The Fed “let go”, ETF funds flowed in, and BTC rebounded to the key price (03.17~03.23)
The BTC Spot ETF channel recorded net inflows for all five trading days of the week, totaling US$1.05 billion, which became the material support for BTC's rebound.
US economic data slightly exceeded expectations, the market got a temporary respite, but it is still difficult to be optimistic before the adjustment motivation is resolved （03.10~03.16）
The worries about “stagflation” are hard to dispel, and the longer it drags on, the greater the room for valuation to be revised downward, which is why we are pessimistic about BTC’s rebound in the short term.
Trading on expectations of a US recession, BTC recorded its second largest weekly drop in this cycle (03.03~03.09)
Whether the rebound of US stocks and BTC can continue requires more observation, and whether they can bottom out and reverse requires more guidance from economic data.
EMC Labs February report: Expectations of a US economic recession re-emerge, BTC suffers a cyclical blow, ushering in a good opportunity for medium- and long-term investment
This month, the BTC Spot ETF recorded its largest monthly outflow since its inception, with the BTC price experiencing its largest pullback in the current cycle.
EMC Labs April report: Macro financial crisis emerges, but on-site funds remain unchanged
综合研判，3~4月的下跌属牛市正常回调，后市走势取决于宏观金融预期及场内资金的选择。
ETH approved and the US election warm-up boosted BTC to regain its upward momentum —— EMC BTC Weekly Observation (5.20~5.26)
Gradual upward movement, with multiple instances of stop-losses at high levels and consolidation along the way, resulting in sufficient turnover to provide strong support for subsequent gains.
EMC Labs May report: Policy factors have an increasing impact, and buying power is gathering to find a breakthrough point
In May, ETF channel inflows reached as high as $1.905 billion, which may become an independent force influencing the price of BTC.
EMC Labs
以投资驱动区块链技术及应用的大规模落地！
